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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">arcainnov</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Арктика и инновации</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Arctic and Innovations</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">3034-1434</issn><publisher><publisher-name>ФГАОУ ВО «МАУ»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.21443/3034-1434-2026-4-1-42-59</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">arcainnov-105</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Статьи</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Картографирование потенциально пригодных местообитаний для залегания в берлоги размножающихся самок белого медведя на архипелаге Новосибирские острова и разработка предложений по их охране</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Mapping of potentially suitable maternal denning habitats for female polar bears on the archipelago of New Siberian Islands and development of their conservation proposals</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1995-8919</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Беликов</surname><given-names>С. Е.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Belikov</surname><given-names>S. E.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Беликов Станислав Егорович — к.б.н., в.н.с., руководитель лаборатории «Арктика»</p><p>РИНЦ ID: 106935;Scopus ID: 7005674145; Web of Science ID: AAU-9597-2021</p><p>117628, г. Москва, 36 км МКАД, двлд. 1, стр. 4</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Stanislav E. Belikov — Cand. Sci. (Biol.), Senior Researcher, Head of the Arctic Laboratory </p><p>RINC ID: 106935;Scopus ID: 7005674145; Web of Science ID: AAU-9597-2021 </p><p>117628, Moscow, 36 km of MKAD, dvld. 1, building 4 </p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">s.belikov@vniiecology.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2060-9070</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Гнеденко</surname><given-names>А. Е.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Gnedenko</surname><given-names>A. E.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Гнеденко Ангелина Евгеньевна — м.н.с. </p><p>РИНЦ ID: 911062;Scopus ID: 57226024765; Web of Science ID: C-2873-2017 </p><p>142900, Московская обл., г. Кашира, ул. Малая Посадская, д. 61</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Angelina E. Gnedenko — Senior Researcher </p><p>RINC ID: 911062;Scopus ID: 57226024765; Web of Science ID: C-2873-2017 </p><p>142900, Moscow Region, Kashira, Malaya Posadskaya St., 61</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">gnedenko.a.e@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5904-8744</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Демьянец</surname><given-names>С. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Demyanets</surname><given-names>S. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Демьянец Софья Сергеевна — м.н.с. </p><p>РИНЦ ID: 1097594;Scopus ID: 57206668492 </p><p>119071, Москва, Ленинский проспект, д. 33</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Sofia S. Demyanets — Senior Researcher </p><p>RINC ID: 1097594;Scopus ID: 57206668492 </p><p>119071, Moscow, Leninsky Ave., 33</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">sofyasdem@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Карташова</surname><given-names>Е. П.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kartashova</surname><given-names>E. P.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Карташова Елизавета Павловна — м.н.с.</p><p>РИНЦ ID: 1303355 </p><p>117628, г. Москва, 36 км МКАД, двлд. 1, стр. 4</p><p> </p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Elizaveta P. Kartashova — Senior Researcher</p><p>RINC ID: 1303355 </p><p>117628, Moscow, 36 km of MKAD, dvld. 1, building 4</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">e.kartashova@vniiecology.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Иванов</surname><given-names>М. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Ivanov</surname><given-names>M. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Иванов Михаил Николаевич — инженер по мониторингу </p><p>117628, г. Москва, 36 км МКАД, двлд. 1, стр. 4</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Mikhail N. Ivanov — Monitoring Engineer</p><p>117628, Moscow, 36 km of MKAD, dvld. 1, building 4</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">m.ivanov@vniiecology.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФГБУ «ВНИИ Экология»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>All-Russian Research Institute for Ecology (VNII Ecologiya)</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт географии РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФБГУН «Институт проблем экологии и эволюции им. А.Н. Северцова» РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>16</day><month>03</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>4</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>42</fpage><lpage>59</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Беликов С.Е., Гнеденко А.Е., Демьянец С.С., Карташова Е.П., Иванов М.Н., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Беликов С.Е., Гнеденко А.Е., Демьянец С.С., Карташова Е.П., Иванов М.Н.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Belikov S.E., Gnedenko A.E., Demyanets S.S., Kartashova E.P., Ivanov M.N.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.arcainnov.ru/jour/article/view/105">https://www.arcainnov.ru/jour/article/view/105</self-uri><abstract><p>Архипелаг Новосибирские острова служит важным районом размножения лаптевской субпопуляции белого медведя, которая остается одной из самых малоизученных в Российской Арктике. Информация о количестве обустроенных берлог размножающимися самками белого медведя является важным параметром, с помощью которого можно оценить численность всей субпопуляции, имеющей только приблизительные экспертные оценки. Моделирование потенциально пригодных местообитаний для залегания в берлоги необходимо для организации учетных работ и последующей оценки количества размножающихся самок на архипелаге, а также при подготовке научно обоснованных предложений по их охране. В результате анализа ландшафтных особенностей, метеоусловий и ледовой обстановки в районе архипелага Новосибирские острова было установлено, что наибольшая площадь территорий, пригодных для обустройства берлог, расположена в северной части архипелага (о-ва Котельный, Новая Сибирь и Бельковский). Вероятно, в ближайшие годы климатические изменения не окажут серьезного негативного влияния на доступность местообитаний для обустройства берлог размножающимися самками белого медведя лаптевской субпопуляции. Однако стоит учитывать, что глобальное потепление может негативно сказаться на состоянии самок белого медведя и их детенышей из-за уменьшения доступности кормовой базы, распространения более южных вариантов патогенов и увеличения срока пребывания на суше. Существующий государственный природный заказник «Новосибирские острова» охватывает не все участки местообитаний, наиболее пригодных для обустройства берлог, поэтому предложенные в статье меры дополняют существующие и будут способствовать более комплексной охране белого медведя на архипелаге.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The archipelago of New Siberian Islands is an important breeding area for the Laptev subpopulation of polar bear, which remains one of  the least studied in the Russian Arctic. Information on the number of dens established by breeding female polar bears is a significant parameter for estimating the size of the entire subpopulation, which has only rough expert estimates. Modeling potentially suitable maternal denning habitats is necessary for organizing censuses and subsequently estimating the number of  breeding females on the archipelago, as well as for developing scientifically-based conservation proposals. An analysis of landscape features, weather conditions, and ice conditions in the archipelago of New Siberian Islands revealed that the largest area of suitable denning sites is located in the northern part of the archipelago (Kotelny Island, Novaya Sibir Island, and Belkovsky Island). Climate change is unlikely to have a significant negative impact on the availability of denning habitats for breeding female polar bears of the Laptev subpopulation in the coming years. However, global warming may negatively impact the well-being of female polar bears and their cubs due to reduced food availability, the spread of more southern pathogens, and increased time spent on land. The State Nature Reserve “Novosibirsk Islands” (Novosibirskiye Ostrova) does not encompass all the habitats most suitable for denning; therefore, the measures proposed in this article contribute to  a  more comprehensive polar bear conservation on the archipelago.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>архипелаг Новосибирские острова</kwd><kwd>белый медведь</kwd><kwd>моделирование</kwd><kwd>ГИС</kwd><kwd>климатические изменения</kwd><kwd>ArcticDEM</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>New Siberian Islands archipelago</kwd><kwd>polar bear</kwd><kwd>modeling</kwd><kwd>GIS</kwd><kwd>climate change</kwd><kwd>ArcticDEM</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Мелихова Е.В., Беликов С.Е., Гнеденко А.Е., Чернышова Д.А. 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